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10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

XX век стал временем великих технологических достижений, открытий и инноваций. Мы перешли от лошадей и повозок к автотранспорту и космическим путешествиям, от мальчиков-посыльных к телефону и Интернету, от свечек к ядерной энергии. И все же, несмотря на столь быстрый технологический прогресс и изменения весьма удивительным оказался тот факт, что множество экспертов изначально не смогли по достоинству оценить те величайшие изобретения, которые в конечном итоге сформировали наше современное общество. Некоторое число сохранившихся во времени знаменитых цитат от тех же изобретателей, СМИ и мировых лидеров о которых мы сегодня поговорим, прекрасно это демонстрируют. Глядя на эти заявления сейчас, ты прекрасно осознаешь, насколько же сильно заблуждались люди, которые их сделали.

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

Никто не захочет иметь дома компьютер

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

Наверно, странно читать такое заявление, сидя за компьютером. Персональные ПК, лэптопы, планшеты и смартфоны стали неотъемлемой частью нашей повседневной жизни. Сегодня в мире миллиарды устройств подключены к Интернету. Поэтому, конечно же, очень странно осознавать, что даже некоторые из пионеров современных компьютерных технологий изначально не верили в грядущий успех своих изобретений.

В 1943 году Томас Уотсон, президент компании IBM произнес следующее: «Я думаю, что на мировом рынке найдется место для, возможно, пяти компьютеров». В то время работающие на вакуумных электронных трубках и лампах компьютерные системы были по-настоящему гигантскими, поэтому неудивительно, что у некоторых могла возникнуть мысль о том, что лишь небольшое количество людей во всем мире захочет иметь такие штуки у себя дома. Тем не менее есть вероятность, что фраза, сказанная Уотсоном, была изначально вырвана из контекста (а некоторые говорят, что он вообще ее никогда не произносил). Вполне возможно, что его заявление относилось к огромным национальным дата-центрам, занимающим по-настоящему большие площади в помещениях, а не к микрокомпьютерам, о которых он, возможно, на тот момент даже не подозревал и которые мы используем сегодня.

Однако основатель технической корпорации, приложившей руку к разработке первых в мире персональных компьютеров оказался не единственным человеком, недооценившим потенциал интереса общественности к тому, чтобы «быть на связи». В 1977 Кен Олсон, основатель и президент корпорации Digital Equipment Corp решил повторить ошибку Уотсона и заявил: «Ни у кого не может возникнуть необходимость иметь компьютер в своем доме».

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Сегодня в мире персональными компьютерами пользуются более двух миллиардов человек, а более трех миллиардов людей ежедневно выходят в Интернет.

Телевидение – это просто причуда

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

Сегодня многие жалуются о том, что им наскучило телевидение, хотя и не в такой степени, как это описывал один из пионеров современного кинематографа в 1940-х годах. К тому моменту, как телевизоры стали обретать настоящую популярность, Дэррил Занук, один из основателей кинокорпорации 20th Century Fox, уже успел приложить руку к созданию более 100 фильмов. Механические телевизоры появились еще в 1920-х годах, однако владели ими всего несколько тысяч человек, поскольку устройства были ну очень дорогими. Все изменилось с приходом в США телевизоров с электронно-лучевой трубкой в 1938 году, именно тогда они начали набирать свою популярность.

Весьма забавным кажется тот факт, что пионер современного кинематографа рассматривал телевидение как обычную приходящую и уходящую забаву. В 1946 году в одном из интервью Занук заявил: «Появившись на любом рынке, телевизоры не смогут продержаться более 6 месяцев. Люди очень быстро устанут пялиться на фанерные ящики каждый вечер».

Сегодня как минимум один телевизор есть в 1,4 миллиарда домов во всем мире.

Телефоны бесполезны

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

Сегодня трудно представить мир без телефонов, мир в котором для общения использовались не телефоны, а исключительно «черепашья» почта и мальчики-посыльные. Тем не менее некоторые специалисты по технологиям коммуникации в свое время не смогли разглядеть важность и потенциал новой технологии, когда Александр Грейам Белл запатентовал свой телефон (по некоторым историческим данным первенство в этом изобретении все-таки принадлежит итальянцу Антонио Меуччи, но суть не в этом).

Свою заявку на патент современного телефона Белл подал в 1876 году. Однако своего заслуженного интереса устройство получило далеко не сразу. При попытке Белла продать свой патент на изобретение Western Union Telegraph Company президент компании Вильям Ортон заявил, что «у телефона слишком много недостатков, чтобы можно было его серьезно рассматривать в качестве средства связи».

Аналогичную оценку устройству в 1890-х годах дал инженер-электротехник и изобретатель Вильям Генри Прис, заявив: «Американцам, возможно, нужен телефон, но нам – нет. У нас достаточно мальчиков-посыльных».

Сегодня в мире используется около 7 миллиардов телефонов.

Высокоскоростные железные дороги невозможны

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

В начале 1800-х годов перевозки по железным дорогам были довольно медленные. Но по мере развития технологии поезда начали становиться быстрее, и эксперты индустрии стали бить в набат, заявляя о вреде железнодорожных путешествия для здоровья. «Вызывают проблему с мозгом», «приводят к вертиго» — вот лишь пара примеров среди большого списка хворей, которые связывали с вводом более быстрого транспорта. А в 1823 году ирландский писатель, физик, математик, популяризатор науки Дионисий Ларднер вообще заявил: «Высокоскоростные поезда невозможны, потому что пассажиры в них не смогут дышать и умрут от асфиксии» (справедливости ради отметим, что историки по-прежнему спорят о том, действительно ли он такое сказал).

Аналогичное отсутствие веры в перспективность железных дорог продемонстрировал король Пруссии Вильгельм I, когда открылась ветка Берлин-Потсдам. Он заявил, что никто не будет пользоваться этим транспортом. «Никто не захочет платить деньги за поездку из Берлина в Потсдам за час, если можно лошадью добраться туда за день, но бесплатно».

Если бы все они знали, что через какое-то время миллионы людей по всему миру будут ежедневно пользоваться метро, а те же японские поезда перевозить людей со скоростью в несколько сотен километров в час.

Лошади останутся навсегда

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

Первый реально использующийся автомобиль с бензиновым двигателем выкатил на дороги в 1885 году, когда немецкий изобретатель Карл Бенц представил миру Benz Patent-Motorwagen. Но этот транспорт стал по-настоящему массовым только после того, как Генри Форд представил свой знаменитый Model T — наиболее распространенный автомобиль той эпохи.

Однако далеко не все видели невероятный потенциал моторных транспортных средств. Напротив, многие считали, что автомобиль никогда не станет дешевым и поэтому его не смогут покупать массово. Многие высказывали опасения и по поводу безопасности этого вида транспорта, считая, что машина имеет слишком высокую скорость (23 километра в час). Все это подводило к мнению, что автомобиль никогда не заменит все еще использовавшихся в то время в качестве основного средства передвижения лошадей.

В 1903 году Форд обратился к своему адвокату и бизнесмену Орасу Рэкхему с предложением инвестировать в его автомобильную компанию. Президент Michigan Savings Bank посоветовал Рэкхему не делать этого: «Лошадь будет всегда, а автомобиль — это просто забава, временное увлечение».

Сегодня в мире используется более одного миллиарда автомобилей.

Коммуникационные спутники не нужны

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

Наша современная деревня с Землю величиной полагается на работу коммуникационных спутников связи, расположенных на орбите. Без них мы не сможем общаться между собой. Спутники ретранслируют сигналы, благодаря чему мы можем ежедневно выходить в Интернет, пользоваться мобильными сетями, телевидением и радио. Поэтому кажется невероятным, что первопроходцы технологий цифровой коммуникации в буквальном смысле отвергали возможность того, что все это у нас когда-нибудь будет.

Будучи офицером ВМС США, Тунис Крейвен помогал в развитии технологий радиосвязи. Он два раза назначался на пост в Федеральную комиссию по связи США. Второй раз пришелся на начало 1960-х годов, когда между Америкой и СССР разгоралась космическая гонка.

Вскоре после запуска первых советских спутников Крейвен в 1961 году пытался убедить комиссию в том, что «коммуникационные спутники не при каких обстоятельствах не смогут обеспечить более качественную телефонную, телеграфную, телевизионную, а также радиосвязь в США».

Спустя всего три года после этого заявления американцы смогли впервые насладиться прямой трансляцией летних Олимпийских игр в Японии благодаря новенькому коммуникационному спутнику Syncom 3.

Мобильные телефоны не заменят проводные системы

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

У большинства людей в мире имеются мобильные телефоны. Первое такое практичное устройство было разработано еще во времена Второй мировой войны и использовалось в полевых условиях на технике. Технология со временем стала применяться и в дорогих гражданских автомобилях, а основные коммуникационные компании занялись поиском способов сделать мобильный телефон по-настоящему портативным устройством.

В 1973 году Мартин Купер, исследователь из компании Motorola совершил первый звонок с портативного мобильного устройства. Взяв с собой аппарат весом 1,1 килограмма, длиной 30 сантиметров и по форме напоминающей кирпич, Купер вышел на улицы Манхеттена и набрал номер своего конкурента в компании Bell, чтобы сообщить о том, что он звонит с мобильного устройства. Однако сам Купер недооценил свое изобретение. В 1981 году он заявил: «Сотовые телефоны абсолютно точно никогда не заменят стационарные проводные системы».

Сегодня обычные домашние телефоны становятся уже динозаврами, постепенно выходя из использования. Большинство людей уже давно полагается на мобильные устройства связи.

Ядерная энергетика невозможна

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

Альберт Эйнштейн был величайшим физиком XX века. Даже самый последний двоечник хоть раз слышал об его общей теории относительности и самой знаменитой формуле E = mc2, выражающей эквивалентность массы и энергии.

Эйнштейн также внес фундаментальный вклад в развитие атомной энергетики и впоследствии создание ядерной бомбы. Но даже сам великий ученый не смог разглядеть потенциал своего открытия. В 1934 году он заявил: «Нет ни малейшего признака того, что ядерная энергия станет подвластна человеку. Это будет означать, что атом будет разрушаться по желанию».

В 1938 году немецкие ученые открыли процесс деления ядер. Это в свою очередь привело к разработке ядерной бомбы, а также строительству более 450 атомных электростанций по всему миру.

Переменный ток – пустая трата времени

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

В 1880-х два изобретателя были втянуты в электрическую войну токов. Томас Эдисон, известный за свое изобретение лампочки, фонографа и кинескопа работал над источником постоянного тока. Его соперник и бывший ученик Никола Тесла работал в это же время над источником переменного тока, позволявшего бы передавать большие объемы энергии на большое расстояние. Эдисон утверждал, что переменный ток Теслы был слишком опасным для использования: «Переменный ток – что за глупости? Его никто и никогда не будет использовать», заявил он.

В наши дни постоянный ток используется для зарядки тех же батарей, переменный ток Теслы питает города по всему миру.

Онлайн-магазины – это мыльный пузырь

10 экспертных предсказаний о технологиях, оказавшихся полностью ошибочными

Более молодому поколению было бы трудно сегодня представить мир без онлайн-шопинга. Но были времена, когда единственной альтернативой похода в ближайший бутик и трате нескольких часов на выбор трусов и лифчиков была возможность заказать по почте каталог с нужными товарами, а затем с помощью той же почты оформить покупку нужной вещи.

С тех пор как в 1994 году была совершена первая покупка через Интернет, этот метод начал стремительно набирать популярность среди множества людей. Сейчас можно без проблем заказать к порогу вашего дома практически все, что душе угодно. Начиная от свежих продуктов и заканчивая автомобилями. Однако еще в 1966 году журнал Time опубликовал статью, в которой пытался предсказать то, какой может быть наша жизнь в 2000-м году.

В статье утверждалось, что «дистанционные покупки хоть и будут возможны, однако женщины все равно будут предпочитать выбраться на некоторое время из дома. Потому что им нравится щупать товар руками, нравится, что в любой момент они могут передумать и воздержаться от покупки той или иной вещи».

Мало того, что по современным стандартам это заявление довольно противоречиво, так еще и сложно будет сегодня найти человека, который готов будет отказаться от удобства покупки вещей через Интернет. Наверняка же каждый из вас хотя бы раз что-то покупал в Сети.

Подписывайтесь на наш Яндекс.Дзен. Ежедневно там публикуются материалы, которые не попадают на сайт.

Источник: news-ria.ru

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