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MIT и ЕКА предложили создать рейтинг безопасности спутников

Поскольку аэрокосмические компании обещают наводнить земную орбиту тысячами новых спутников в течение следующего десятилетия, эксперты отрасли говорят, что пришло время классифицировать этих операторов в зависимости от их стремлений сохранить космос безопасным и чистым. Система рейтинга поможет компаниям оставаться честными и обеспечит орбиту Земли открытой для бизнеса и свободной от излишних обломков, мусора и спутников.

MIT и ЕКА предложили создать рейтинг безопасности спутников

Пора бороться с мусором на орбите

В настоящее время, по данным Европейского космического агентства, на орбите находится около 2000 действующих спутников, а агентства отслеживают более 22 000 обломков. Но такие компании, как SpaceX, OneWeb и Amazon предложили добавить гигантские новые констелляции спутников, исчисляемые сотнями или тысячами штук. По мере того, как число спутников на орбите Земли растет, растет и риск столкновения этих транспортных средств. Столкновения могут создать сотни осколков, угрожающих другим функционирующим аппаратам.

Спутниковые операторы могут принять определенные меры при создании и запуске космического аппарата, направленные на снижение вероятности столкновения. Изменения в конструкции спутника, его положении над Землей или в плане его полета могут повлиять на его шансы угрозы другим космическим кораблям и создания лишнего мусора на орбите.

Space Sustainability Rating

И вот, две группы экспертов от MIT и ЕКА планируют создать независимый процесс оценки решений, принимаемых операторами спутников при создании своих констелляций. Концепция Space Sustainability Rating (SSR, «космический рейтинг стабильности») должна обеспечить дополнительный уровень ответственности для компаний, которые отправляют транспорт в космос. «Это по сути поощряет компании конкурировать между собой за хорошее поведение, за создание репутации», говорит Даниэль Вуд, доцент кафедры медиаискусств и науки в MIT и руководитель команды MIT.

Уже существуют нормативные акты, предназначенные для поддержания чистоты орбиты Земли. Правительственные агентства в США, которые регулируют запуски, вроде FCC, рассматривают, как спутник может повлиять на космическую среду, прежде чем позволить ему лететь. В 1990-х годах правительство США разработало руководящие принципы и методы для операторов, которым они должны следовать, чтобы снизить риск появления космического мусора. ООН приняла стандарты, схожие с американскими, а другие страны разработали собственные руководства.

Но на Всемирном экономическом форуме предположили, что должна существовать некая параллельная система для контроля за космическими компаниями, управляющая отраслью и требующая добровольных действий. Поэтому для разработки SSR выбрали MIT и ЕКА. Команды еще не определились с подробностями рейтинга, но потратят следующие несколько лет на изучение основ.

Одним из важнейших аспектов рейтинга будет соблюдение компанией текущих стандартов. «Один из вопросов, которые мы зададим, будет заключаться в следующем: соблюдает ли этот оператор спутника те или иные правила и руководства?», говорит Вуд. Большая часть таких стандартов вращается вокруг срока службы спутника, требуя от операторов в конечном итоге вывести свои спутники с орбиты. США требуют безопасной утилизации спутников через 25 лет. Это означает либо приближение спутника к Земле, где он притягивается под действием силы тяжести и сгорает в атмосфере, либо вывод спутника на «орбиту-кладбище» — область космоса, которую не используют никакие активные спутники.

SSR будет рассматривать, как компания избавляется от своих спутников, а также примет во внимание все физические характеристики космического аппарата, которые могут сделать транспортное средство более опасным. Это концепция, которую Мориба Джа, один из партнеров команды MIT, называет «космическим следом» — аналогично концепции углеродного следа на Земле. «Это бремя, которое любой объект — живой или мертвый — возлагает на безопасность и стабильность всего остального в космосе», говорит Джа.

Космический след будет учитывать, например, орбиту спутника. «Некоторые орбиты чрезвычайно пустые, ничего в округе нет», говорит Джа. «Некоторые содержат много других объектов, в той же космической магистрали». Есть орбита на 40 000 километров над экватором — геостационарный пояс — весьма популярное место для спутников связи; и орбиты на высоте 400-900 километров также переполнены спутниками наблюдения Земли. Спутник на одной из этих относительно переполненных орбит будет иметь большую площадь следа, чем спутник на относительно пустой орбите.

Маневренность космического аппарата также важна: есть ли у него двигатели, которые позволят избежать столкновений? Сможет ли он быстро уйти с дороги? По словам Джа, ответы на эти вопросы будут учитываться при расчете площади. Как построен спутник, это тоже будет приниматься во внимание. Если он сконструирован так, чтобы выдерживать экстремальные температуры и вибрации, он с меньшей вероятностью развалится и превратится в мусор.

Командам MIT и ЕКА придется выяснить, какой вес придать каждой из этих характеристик спутника. Чтобы получить всю необходимую информацию, команды планируют использовать общедоступные данные, которыми компании обмениваются в лицензионных заявках по своим аппаратам. К ним относятся, например, орбиты спутника, а также планы утилизации. Вуд говорит, что операторам придется выбирать между лучшим рейтингом и возможностью скрыть часть информации.

Как только система оценки будет принята, командам предложат алгоритм, оценивающий, как спутник или созвездие может повлиять на другие транспортные средства в космосе. Возможно, когда это все будет завершено, наблюдать за этими показателями будет поручено другой организации.

Компании и операторы смогут улучшить свой имидж, повышая свой SSR. Это также будет полезно для компаний, которые страхуют свои корабли — SSR может быть хорошим руководством для оценки ответственности спутника.

Но главная цель состоит в том, чтобы сохранить орбиту Земли в рабочем состоянии. Если в космосе будет слишком много мусора, некоторые орбиты могут стать непригодными для использования. А значит, мы в теории можем потерять определенные возможности, которые зависят от спутников, вроде спутникового телевидения и связи, наблюдений Земли и космических исследований. Это одна из основных причин, по которой Джа и Вуд работают над SSR — она обеспечивает еще один способ защиты космоса.

«Околоземное пространство требует защиты окружающей среды», говорит Джа. «Это не настолько большая проблема, как изменение климата, но глобальное достояние, которое может пострадать от трагедии, если мы ничего не сделаем».

Как думаете, космос нуждается в нашей защите? Расскажите в нашем чате в Телеграме.

Источник: hi-news.ru

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